Iran, Saudi Arabia, US, Houthis drive Hormuz crisis
prioritysuntimes.com · post 66656 · 2026-07-19
MANAMA, July 19 — For communities across Asia that depend on oil imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the converging pressures of regional rivalries and armed conflict are creating a volatile mix. At the centre of the crisis stand four distinct actors, each with their own capabilities and constraints, and each reshaping the landscape that OPEC must navigate. Iran holds the world’s fourth‑largest oil reserves, estimated at about 155 billion barrels.
The country produced 3.2 million barrels per day in 2023. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in power since 1989, holds ultimate authority over the Revolutionary Guard, which operates naval forces capable of threatening shipping in the strait.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in July 2024, faces sanctions that have limited Iran’s oil exports to about 1.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, possesses proven reserves of 267 billion barrels. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, appointed in September 2019, has managed the OPEC+ production cuts.
Saudi Aramco maintains a maximum sustained capacity of 12 million barrels per day. The United States, through the Navy’s Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain since 1995, provides maritime security in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
The US is the world’s largest oil producer, pumping 13.2 million barrels per day in 2023, yet still imports about 6 million barrels per day. The Houthi movement, a rebel group that has controlled northern Yemen — including the capital Sanaa — since 2014, was designated a terrorist group by the US in 2024. Leader Abdul‑Malik al‑Houthi has directed attacks on Red Sea shipping since November 2023.
The group receives weapons and training from Iran.
Impact on shipping and supply
Those Houthi attacks have driven up global shipping insurance premiums and forced vessels to divert around Africa, lengthening voyages and raising costs. For Asian economies that rely on steady flows of crude from the Gulf, the disruption adds uncertainty to already tight markets. OPEC’s ability to stabilise prices hinges on the security of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes.
Any escalation between Iran, the Houthis, and the coalition forces patrolling the waterway could directly affect the supply chains that feed refineries from Japan to the Philippines. Closer to home, the ripple effects of higher freight costs and delayed deliveries are felt by businesses and households alike.
The price of basic goods — not just fuel — is sensitive to the insurance surcharges and longer routes that shippers now face.
What to watch next
The ongoing standoff leaves OPEC with little room to manoeuvre. Saudi Arabia holds spare capacity, but the security environment makes it difficult to guarantee uninterrupted flows. Iran, constrained by sanctions, cannot easily ramp up exports even if it wanted to.
And the US Fifth Fleet remains the primary guarantor of safe passage through the strait — a role that carries its own political and military risks. For the millions of families across Asia whose daily lives depend on affordable energy and stable shipping lanes, the next moves by these four actors will be watched with more than passing interest.